The cornavirus epidemic peak comes in five months when about 5,600 people will have been infected, according to the latest udpate of the model run by Health Ministry's analystical unit IZP. This latest estimate is dramatcally lower than the half million cases predicted in the first version issued in March.
"Based on
available data regarding the occurrence of COVID-19 in Slovakia,
international comparisons and the most up-to-date models, it stands to
reason that the reproductive number for the virus has been decreased
below the value of 1.0 for most of the population. However, the virus
continues to spread slowly," IZP's head Martin Smatana said on Friday.
Aside from infections in Roma communities which have poor hygiene conditons, another
danger are potential 'superspreaders', who could spark communal viral
outbreaks at retirement homes and similar facilities, which is why
measures should target these particular population groups.
The analysts expect
that only around 75 mechanical lung ventilators will be needed for the
outbreak peak phase, which is significantly less than previously
thought.
