One in five residents of Bratislava may get infected with the new coronavirus, according to a model done by the City Hall. It is based on the model done by Health Ministry's analytical department adjusted to Bratislava's population. It looks at four scenarios:
1)High mobility- almost no restrictions for people moving around. In this case the epidemic will peak at the end of May- early June and 21.3 % of city's population will have been infected. (the red line in the graph bellow)
2) Moderate mobility- some restrictions are in place that reduce mobility by 30% meaning schools and kidergartens are closed but people go to work. In this case 18.2% of the population will have been infected and disease peaks at the end of June (the orange line in the graph below)
3)Low mobility A- a 70% drop in mobility with all schools and kidergartens closed and almost all companies closed. In this case 6.9 % of the population will have been infected (the blue line in the graph below)
4)Low mobility B - a 65% drop in mobility- all schools and kidergartens closed and a part of companies too but some shops are open (eg. foodstore, pharmacies, newsagents, toiletries shops, gas stations). In this case 3.4% of the population will have been infected (the green line in the graph below)
The model predicts the following number of patients for each scenario (the first column is the number of days starting on Monday, March 30th. It esimates that for each 10,000 infected people 377 will have to be hospitalized with 112 needing intensive care and 54 may not survive.
The complete analysis will be updated regularly.
