Political scientist about the election: Tough fight awaits in 2nd round

The first round of the presidential elections did not bring any big surprises, says  political scientist at the Slovak Academy of Sciences Juraj Marušiak. He expects the campaign ahead of the second round to be a fierce contest between the candidates, and the result could be close.
       
Marušiak thinks that Ivan Korčok and the opposition managed to effectively mobilise especially urban voters. He also sees a connection with the protests against the government or the amendment to the Penal Code, although the organisers of the protests did not explicitly link them to support for Korčok.

As for the second round, Marušiak expects a sharp and tough fight. In his opinion, the lead over his opponent speaks in Korčok's favour, but Pellegrini can still win over the voters of unsuccessful candidates. "It is absolutely clear that those who voted for Štefan Harabin will certainly not vote for Ivan Korčok in the second round. The same can be said about Kristian Forró's voters," he noted. However, the question is who will get the votes for Ján Kubiš and Igor Matovič. (together they got 4,21% which is almost 100k votes, editor’s note)

Peter Pellegrini, according to Marušiak, could be harmed by the greater involvement of Prime Minister and Smer-SD leader Robert Fico in the campaign before the second round, which could contribute to his negative image of a non-independent politician who only follows Fico’s orders.

The relatively high turnout in the first round may have been caused by the strong polarisation of society, thinks Marušiak. He added that even before the first round, society had already split into two camps, Korčok and Pellegrini. Here too, the mobilisation at the protests and the social situation may have played a role. He added that although Korčok himself did not arouse strong emotions, there was a strong motivation of opposition voters. "If the other side wants to evoke such emotions, it really has to campaign in a very hard way," Marušiak noted.

The same high turnout can be expected in the second round, he said, as long as Korčok voters do not fall into lethargy or a feeling that victory is in their pocket.