In June, both exports and imports were one fifth higher than before the pandemic, with the country recording a trade-balance surplus of almost €300 million, the Statistics Office reported on Monday. Jana Glasová, a 365.bank analyst, expects the trade balance to remain positive in the months ahead thanks to foreign demand, but the low comparative base is starting to fade in the summer months, and year-on-year rates of growth for exports and imports should therefore be slower. "In addition, our foreign trade in the upcoming months will also depend on the impact of the third pandemic wave on our economy and on how the current material-supply crisis will affect our economy. This crisis has put a question mark over the production of car manufacturers, which are the biggest driving force behind Slovakia's exports," said Glasová. A shortage of chips, which has caused unwanted pauses in production, has started to appear in this segment. "Another major problem for industry is the lack of plastic granulate, which is used in most industries, including the automotive one. The market also reports problems with a lack of metal plate, metals, wood, glass and construction materials," said the analyst.
UniCredit Bank analyst Lubomir Koršňák does not expect surpluses to continue to grow, either. He expects them to go down slightly during the summer. Koršňák predicts that when the base effect (record growth in surpluses when set against the pandemic spring in the summer and autumn of last year) fades, trade-balance surpluses will narrow slightly. "Nevertheless, we expect them to remain above the level of 2019. The key automotive industry should contribute to this despite the semi-conductor crisis," stated the analyst. Gradually recovering domestic demand should be instrumental in this as well, he added.
